Can the Calabasas Cookie Eaters Predict the Outcome of the Super Bowl?
February 3rd, 2008 Categories: Eclectic and Off Beat
I just got back from Gelsons in Calabasas and having the “sweet tooth” that I do, I had to stop by the bakery for my favorite Black and White cookie. As I was waiting in line I noticed that they had special New York Giant and New England Patriot cookies for the Super Bowl.
There was a tray and a half of New York Giant cookies (18 to be exact) and only three New England cookies left. I love to talk to strangers so I said to the guy standing next to me, “I guess the Calabasas cookie eaters think that the Patriots will win the Super Bowl” while I pointed at the cookies. We both started to laugh and he decided to order some Giant cookies to take to a Super Bowl Party that he was going to.
In my book it doesn’t matter who wins if Pittsburgh isn’t playing. Maybe Gelsons should make some Bank of America and Countrywide cookies and see what the cookie eaters think about that.
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What Are You Waiting For?
January 25th, 2008 Categories: In The News Calabasas
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2007 Year End Number of Homes Sold Report for Calabasas, CA
January 24th, 2008 Categories: Calabasas RE Statistics, In The News Calabasas
Total number of home sales down 13% in 2007.
There were a total of 293 homes sold in Calabasas, CA during 2007, down 44 (13%) from the 2006 total of 337. Take a good look at the chart above, you can see that home sales were in line with 2006 figures until September. The time from escrow opened to actual close is usually 30-45 days, we can assume that the slow down in sales was actually two months earlier or July and coincides with the mortgage melt down. September, October, November and December were significantly lower in number of sales.
Its a Buyers market – with 9 months of Calabasas homes inventory.
As I write this post there are 172 active properties on the market in Calabasas. The absorption rate (average number of sales per month) is approximately 19* sales per month. This means that we have a nine month supply of homes on the market right now. Six months of inventory is considered a neutral market. Nine months would be considered a buyers market.
January and February will experience similar closed sales (approximately 20)
There are 15 Calabasas homes in escrow right now. These transactions would most likely close within the next 30 to 60 days. It appears that January and February will experience a similar number of home sales (approximately 19 or 20 each month).
The Outlook is for a moderate Spring and Summer 2008.
Move Up Buyers should start planning their move.
Home sales usually increase during the Spring and Summer and 2008 should be no different. Interest rates are lower than ever and buyers that are in solid financial shape will have no problem obtaining a mortgage. Smart move up buyers should seize this opportunity to sell their homes and move up to a larger and more luxurious home this Spring and Summer. This is the time to act if you are moving within Calabasas and are selling a lesser price home to move up. Whatever price concession you make on your current smaller home will be gained plus more on a bigger more expensive home.
First time home buyers with solid resources are encouraged to buy now.
First time home buyers that were priced out of the market before can now afford Calabasas. There are several condos listed in the $350,000 to $600,000 range and single family homes in the $650,000 and up range. There are a few bank owned properties and short pays that make this the perfect time if youve been trying to move in to Calabasas but thought the prices were too high.
If you would like more information on Calabasas and the market conditions or how these numbers will effect you and your home purchase or sale, please call Tracey Thomas at (818) 652-2937.
*The absorption rate was calculated by taking the total number of sales for July through December (116) and dividing by 6 months. (Six months = July, August, September, October, November and December)
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“Sellers Choice” – Beware, these words could mean something you didn’t expect.
January 21st, 2008 Categories: In The News Calabasas
Even in this “buyers market” I received multiple offers on one of my listings last week. As I was reviewing the purchase agreements I couldn’t believe how many agents are still writing in ”sellers choice” for title, escrow, home warranty company and natural zone disclosure company.
Did you know that if you write “sellers choice” for natural zone disclosure and the other agent doesn’t pick a company in the counter offer, you’ll end up with a company called Seller’s Choice Disclosures? That’s right, there is actually a company called Seller’s Choice Disclosure. This is great if that is who you wanted, but not so great if you didn’t. Also, if you just write NHD in the box then escrow will pick the
company. There is no company called NHD. NHD are just the initials for Natural Hazard Disclosure.
The same goes for escrow, title and home warranty company. I Googled “sellers choice escrow” and came up with 65,400 results. I didn’t see any escrow companies in CA with this name, but why take a chance? Just write what you want in the blank so there is no confusion.
And this brings me to another very important point regarding preparing a purchase agreement for a buyer. It’s important to always specify who you want for NHD, home warranty, title and escrow companies. Many times the listing agent won’t have a preference and you’ll get the company that you want.
I’ve learned in negotiations that you usually have to give up something to get something. If you don’t specify these items initially, then you can’t even use them in your negotiations. To me it’s important start your negotiations from a position of power and this means preparing a well thought out purchase agreement with all of the blanks filled in.
If you are purchasing a home in Calabasas CA and you’d like your California Residential Purchase Agreement prepared and negotiated by a professional who understands the nuances of this very important contract please call Tracey Thomas at (818) 652-2937.
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Texas Hold’em – Just Because I Make It Look Easy Doesn’t Mean It Is
January 17th, 2008 Categories: In The News Calabasas
This is such a great story, I couldn’t wait until the transaction closed to write this post. Mr. and Mrs. Buyer contacted me via email. They said they had seen my my blog and were relocating to Los Angeles from out of State and needed to find a home that suited their needs in one weekend. They had been to the San Fernando Valley one other time on a house hunting trip but didn’t find what they were looking for. Both, Mr. and Mrs. Buyer were very tech savvy with Mr. Buyer relocating for a position that he had accepted with an online gaming company. “Tracey — I am concerned about making a counter-offer on this property without an understanding concerning the end game. If it takes going above $1.81, I would be willing, however, I do not think it at all unreasonable to have participation from the Realtors in assisting us in going above this price. At this stage I would like to have your commitment to share in the overage above 1.81 on a 25% basis … meaning if we do settle at 1.85 that would be a $10k rebate ($40k * 25%) of your commission … which is well under the commitment from Discount Realtor (which would be $11.6k rebate). I believe this is quite fair Tracey … Mrs. Buyer found this house … WE Settled on it prior to flying … WE went around shopping ONCE with you … WE are the best buyers a Realtor could ever ask for … and WE are closing on this very quickly.
Please provide your commitment here so we can finalize the counter-offer, which I would like to make $1.81 … and find our way to a final price, which is in both our interests to keep low.”
“Hi Mr. and Mrs Buyer,
Thanks for being for being open about your concerns. I fully understand your thought process. Many people feel the same way when dealing with Realtors. The lure of discount brokerages is not new and certainly can be enticing.
In hiring a full service Realtor, such as myself, you are hiring an individual with expertise in many different areas, not just in Calabasas. However; I live, work and play in Calabasas. My child goes to school here. I have seen all houses of interest on the market inside and out. I have also built solid relationships with many of the agents that work in Calabasas. Even if I don’t know them directly, they know of me. In fact I am not just a real estate agent, I’m a licensed CA Real Estate Broker. I have also have received the GRI and SRES designation. The GRI is a year long real estate designation that less than 10% of agents have nationwide. The SRES designation means that I am an expert in helping Seniors find housing. The education is helpful, but my main motivation when I obtained the extra license and designations was that it helps me when negotiating for my clients. Let me explain.
When a (good) listing agent receives an offer, one of the first things they will do is see which agent wrote the offer. If it’s an unknown agent from out of the area or a discount broker they know that they have the upper hand. We go so far as to Google other agents to see what type of negotiator and how much experience they have. When someone Googles me, it’s becomes crystal clear that I know my stuff.
The letter that I sent over to the other agent with your XXXX Street offer did not say much, but the conversation that I had with the listing agent on the phone is what facilitated the sellers dropping the price $111,900 (nearly 6%) in the opening round of negotiations. He tried to use the list of comparable sales that he had and we literally went through his 20 comparables one by one. I had them thrown out for one reason or another. Primarily because I had seen the house and knew that it was not a similar property because of amenities, area, year built, etc. This is my area of expertise, I know the houses, I know what they sold for, I even know the back story on many. I know if it was divorce, or another problem. I have that information because this is my business. The discount broker or an outside agent does not have access to this information.
When you hire an attorney, you have a choice to hire an inexperienced lawyer for $150 hour or a seasoned veteran who knows all the tricks and the players. For this you will pay much more. Many times you pay $600 an hour or more. But for your money you get knowledge and power. You can do things with a high powered attorney that you could never do with a new discount lawyer. The amount per hour is so much less than the time or money that the experienced lawyer saves you.
This is the same in real estate. If you would have used Discount Broker to submit this offer and negotiate this transaction, you would be almost acting alone. They just write the number you tell them to and send it over. Then when the counter comes back, you tell them what to write next. They will prepare a comparable market analysis, but it would have been exactly like the one that the listing agent from ABC Company provided. They wouldn’t have been able to get a counter this low.
I educated the listing agent on the phone on the other properties. I told him what to tell his sellers. I gave him the ammunition to get the price reduction. It’s all about market knowledge and understanding people. I am the best at this and this is why I do well.
Again, I understand your feelings, but in the long run I will protect your money and investment as if it were my own.
And just so you understand, once an offer is accepted and goes in to escrow there are more negotiations to come. The home inspection usually brings around more items that need to be negotiated. My Rolodex is full of experts that will help me to help you get accurate information on repairs and negotiate these repairs etc.
This business is not just what you know, but whom you know also.
In closing, life is like Texas hold ‘em, we are dealt cards, but how we play them is based on our skill level. It may look easy, but until you sit across from Phil Hellmuth you don’t know what a real poker player is all about.
I hope you will reconsider now that you have all of the information. Please let me know how you’d like to proceed as the counter offer expires today at 5:00PM. “
” Life is like Texas Hold’em … you not only play the game extremely well … you are certainly one of the pro players I would back in my business!!
Thank you for taking the time to answer. Your answer is not only appreciated but it is accepted.
With that … please provide our counter-offer at $1.81 million. “
” Tracey –Thanks so much. I simply cannot thank you enough for all your assistance. Mrs Buyer talked to many different people on the phone when we were looking for a Realtor for California … and it was only after talking with you that she could finally say “I found the right person” … and that was from a single conversation. “The right person” for us was someone who would care for our interests as if they were theirs … would take Mrs. Buyer’s picky tastes, which she is quite good at communicating over the phone, and convert that into the less than 1% of homes that actually qualify to meet those tastes … would take us soup to nutz through the closing procedures in California, and never let us miss a deadline with a friendly nudging approach … and would deal with my craziness in all regards, including my penny-pinching way of looking at life.No one could ever be expected to excel in any of these areas … and I still scratch my head at how you scored more than 100% in ALL of them for certain. We have never met anyone like you …When we are ready for the step up to a $10+ Million mansion (give me a few years to make my millions first) … I don’t care where it will be located … or where you are located … you simply must be the person to find it for us! I would be elated to be a reference to anyone that wants to use Tracey Thomas as their expert in finding a home … and you can believe I will be a walking billboard to anyone I come across that is looking. “
Mr. and Mrs. Buyer moved in to their new home last weekend. I was there on moving day with my favorite cake and some gorgeous flowers for their patio. It all felt so good. Did I say how much I love Calabasas Relocations!! If you are relocating to Calabasas, I would love to help make your move a smooth, pleasant experience. Please call Tracey Thomas at (818) 652-2937.
The names, numbers and identifying information have been changed to protect the privacy of my clients but this story is very true. I did mention to my clients that I’d be blogging about their experience and they were all for it. They have given me permission to tell this story.
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Prevent Mortgage Fraud – Foreclosures in Calabasas and the San Fernando Valley
December 14th, 2007 Categories: In The News Calabasas
Predatory lending has caused many foreclosures in Calabasas and the San Fernando Valley. If you are having trouble making your mortgage payments, seek professional advice immediately. Be aware of the people making you offers that sound too good to be true. Scam artists will mail you offers, call you on the phone and even show up at your door.
Freddie Mac just released this video about mortgage scams. Con artists are seeking homeowners in trouble. Freddie Mac has a web page for Avoiding Mortgage Fraud. If you are in trouble this is a good place to start.
No San Fernando Valley Real Estate professional will ever ask you to sign your deed over. If anyone asks you to sign a quit claim deed, know that you are most likely a victim of fraud.
If you are having trouble making your payments, contact your lender or your San Fernando Valley Realtor or call (818) 652–2937.
Please watch this short video from Freddie Mac.
Homeowners HOPE can work with you to help find a solution. 1–888–995–HOPE.
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LA Designers Holiday Shopping Event in Calabasas to Support ALS
December 14th, 2007 Categories: Calabasas Events
Avoid the holiday crowds and help a great cause! This Saturday, December 15, 2007 a gift lounge will be held in Calabasas. There will be gifts for everyone on your list. Designers will showcase holiday gifts for men, women, children and pets. The proceeds will go to support the E.F. Wallengren Fund for ALS research.
The ALS Association is committed to improving the quality of life for people living with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis, or ALS (commonly referred to as Lou Gehrigs disease). This progressive neurodegenerative disease affects 30,000 Americans annually.
The ALS Association symbolizes the hopes of people everywhere that Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis will one day be a disease of the past. The ALS Association relentlessly pursues its mission to help people living with ALS and to leave no stone un-turned in the search for the cure of the disease that took the life of baseball legend Lou Gehrig.
Among the many vendors participating will be Sugar n Spice Clothing. Owner, Cheryl Wallengren, who lost her husband, Ernie Wallengren, to ALS in May 2003, will be opening up her heart and her home for this event. Cheryl creates beautiful hand crafted dresses and accessories at Sugar n Spice Clothing.
Also present at the event will be artist, Lynnda Rakos, and designers from I See Spot, 1 of My Kind, Meadowmere Lane, Maureen & Kate Totes, Henry Road, Voz Jewelry and more. Wonderful fashions, accessories and designs will be available for purchase, just in time for the holidays. A silent auction will also be held to help raise funds for this charity.
The event will be from 11:00 AM to 5:00 PM on Saturday December 15, 2007 at 23330 Park Hacienda, Calabasas, CA 91302. For more information about th event, contact Dani Cauoette at (661) 406-1464 or the E.F. Wallengren Fund.
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A Few Miles From Calabasas – Secluded and Sexy Bell Canyon – Las Virgenes Schools
December 10th, 2007 Categories: In The News Calabasas
Just a few miles from Calabasas and you feel like you’re on top of the world in this secluded Bell Canyon hilltop estate. This magnificent home was designed 
by architect David Towbin to showcase the expansive city light and canyon views from every room. There is a private gated entrance and lush California landscaping that is low maintenance and Eco-friendly. French doors that open from the living room, dining room, kitchen and family room on to the patio make it easy to entertain inside or out and take advantage of the year round beautiful weather.
The living room features dramatic floor to ceiling windows, a granite fireplace and mahogany floors.. There is also a wet bar with wine storage so that entertaining is a breeze. This home is filled with architectural details that make it the perfect place to display objects d’ art. There is even an adjustable track lighting system to showcase your paintings. The chef’s kitchen has a Thermadore stove and double ovens plus a Sub-Zero refrigerator. There are granite counter tops and a center island with vegetable sink. The breakfast bar and atrium eat in kitchen make this room the heart of the home.
The family room has a gorgeous slate stone fireplace with colors that blend with the mountain views. Track lighting and oak floors complete this cozy room. You’ll feel like you’re on vacation in this amazing master suite that features a sitting area, patio, fireplace and his and her bathrooms. The views from the master bedroom are breathtaking. This home has four bedrooms and four and a half bathrooms. Listed for $2,100,000.
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Snow Day in Calabasas California
November 30th, 2007 Categories: Calabasas Events, In The News Calabasas
Get your sled and head on over to Gates Canyon Park in Calabasas this Sunday December 2. Calabasas is having their annual Snow, Snow, Snow Day. I’ll never forget the first time I saw kids playing in the snow in their tee shirts, shorts and gloves. Calabasas has tons of snow trucked in for this event. They spread the snow on a huge hill and everyone has a blast sled riding until it melts. If you’ve never seen this you have to check it out, it’s really a sight. Something about snow and palm trees in the same picture is very surreal.
Admission is only $5.00 per child, two to twelve years old. Children under two are free. The event runs from 11:00-1:30. There are also refreshments, pictures with Santa and arts and crafts. Be sure to bring an inner tube, sled or saucer. If you don’t own a sled, you can use a metal baking tray. They work great and are extra slippery when they get cold. I’ve also seen people use their pool toys and plastic garbage can lids. The weather forecast for Sunday is sunny and 64 so the snow won’t melt too fast.
Get that Thermos of hot chocolate ready and I’ll see you there. Be sure to take your camera, the folks back East really get a kick out of this stuff.
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So You’ve Cancelled Your Listing Agreemet – Now What? Insanity Part 2
November 29th, 2007 Categories: In The News Calabasas
Part one of this series, Insanity: Doing The Same Thing Over and Over and Expecting Different Results explains how to cancel your existing listing agreement. In this post, I explain my pricing process. Part three of this series will explain out of the box marketing strategies and what is working in todays market to bring in qualified buyers.
The correct pricing strategy is the most important factor when selling a home. It’s not enough to complete a comparative market analysis, agree on a price and publish to MLS. Price is so much more than just looking at what has sold in the past. Following are the steps that I use to determine the price of a home. This is not rocket science, but it is important and the information should be updated as new homes come on the market and other homes sell. Market knowledge is power and current information is mandatory.
The first and most obvious step is that I prepare a complete Comparative Market Analysis affectionately called the CMA. In this report I list all of the homes with similar square footage and room count that have sold within the past six months close to your home. Realtors often refer to these homes as “comps” (comparable homes). Then an adjustment is made to each of these homes to make it more like your home. For example if one of the homes doesn’t have a pool and yours does, then we would subtract the value of the pool from the price of the comparable home with no pool. I do the same thing for homes that are currently on the market, homes that have cancelled or expired and homes that are pending sale. From all of this data I can come up with a general price for you home.
Back in the day when houses were selling in less that a week, we’d take this price and add a cushion and publish to MLS. We can’t do that now! We need more information!
The next step is to determine what is happening in the hyper local market where your home is located. Real estate is local. What is happening in Arizona or Florida doesn’t have much to do with California or even the San Fernando Valley real estate market. As a matter of fact, towns that are located right next to each other can be experiencing totally different trends and would call for different pricing and marketing strategies. So how do I know what the trends are?
I track the prices and number of sales for each area that I serve every month. For example, only fifteen homes sold in Calabasas during October 2007. This is a 25% decrease in the number of homes sold over the same period last year. The average home has decreased in value 7% since last year. All of these factors need to be analyzed in order to come up with correct selling price.
The absorption rate is another critical factor that I look at when determining the price. Absorption rate simply means the average number of homes sold per month over a particular period of time. For example, right now there are 209 houses for sale in Calabasas. I know the absorption rate is 23.5 (I computed this figure by dividing the total number of Calabasas sales from January 1st through October 31 into 10 months). When I divide the number of houses on the market by the absorption rate it’s easy to see that it will take nine months to sell all of homes on the market right now (209 divided by 23.5).
These figures will also give us an idea of how many homes will sell next month as a percentage. This is important because it will tell us exactly where we have to be in price and condition to sell. In Calabasas only 10% of the inventory is selling each month (10% is the average for the ten months in 2007). This means that a house has to either be in the top 10% price wise and condition wise. It is extremely important to know these numbers before we price your home.
Knowing the competition is another factor that has to be examined. I make it a point to look at the other homes on the market from the perspective of a buyer. This way I can determine if your home is priced in the top 10% and the condition and amenities are in the top 10%. If for some reason the condition isn’t comparable to the other homes for sale, then the price has to be adjusted to reflect the condition. The only way to do this is for me to actually view homes in the same price range as they come on the market. This is why it’s important that your Realtor be familiar with your town and neighborhood.
Motivation is the final factor that I take in to account when determining the price of your home. If you’ve already purchased a home and are eager to move then I would consider being extremely aggressive in pricing. If you’d like to move but are not in a hurry, then a slightly higher price can be used. I say this with great caution since the Calabasas housing market is in a slight decline right now. The last thing you want to do is to price your home behind the price decline and “chase the market down” every month.
Only after compiling all of this data can I come up with a realistic and accurate selling price. I then present these facts to my seller and we can usually agree on a pricing strategy to get the home sold quickly. Sometimes after a seller has a chance to digest all of this information we’ll make the decision to hold off on selling the home. It’s important that a seller has realistic expectations and understands that having their house on the market can be stressful and frustrating if it is not priced correctly. Many times there are alternatives, like renting out the home which may serve the sellers ultimate goal better.
This brings me to the last and very interesting tid bid of knowledge on pricing homes in our challenging market. It’s trust. Trusting your agent’s ability to price the home correctly and follow through on marketing. Recently, I have had sellers contact me to re-list their home after it had expired or cancelled with another Broker. Each time I have completed these pricing steps and have discussed the information with the seller. We’ve decided together on a new pricing structure supported by this cold hard data. In every single case, the price has been significantly less than the listing price that they had originally. What is interesting here is that these sellers told me that they would have reduced their price sooner if they would have had this information. It’s extremely important that your Real Estate Agent is completing the steps necessary to give you the information needed to make an educated and accurate pricing decision.
If you would like more information on how to price your home correctly or an in depth analysis of your home, please call me at (818) 652-2937. Be sure to check out part three of this series on marketing strategies.
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